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Haven’t been posting lately because of family obligations….aging parents take lots of time…
However, I’ve been mulling over the investing scene in very brief spare moments. It’s a process of re-education, after nearly 20 years of “buy and hold.” No more of that. Oh, it’s OK to hold, but it’s time to learn how to take money off the table. Being 20 years OLDER puts some urgency behind this effort.
Trying to understand technical analysis, learning about business cycles, you name it. Then, trying to figure how that all actually fits in during a time when NOTHING is normal!
Of course, most of the official economic numbers are pure fiction, as is the story about how everything is “improving.” Even phony numbers can’t hide the truth, that the long-term picture is not rosy at all. Full time “spinners, ” however, have the story down pat and a lot of Americans are willing to believe it. It’s an easier story to buy into if you’re in financial trouble. HOPE, you know…
Locally, I’ve discovered an economic indicator that might apply to your neighborhood, too.
I’ve noticed a SEVERE drop-off in pizza deliveries! No kidding, before the economic mess hit, the Papa John’s, Dominos, and Pizza Hut drivers were in and out of here constantly, not only for dinner, but for lunch, too. These day…nada. Oh, last week there was one delivery I saw, to a house were new people were moving in. But, as for the regular trade? It’s gone. Kaput. Zip.
If you want to get a view of how officialdom views the economic landscape these days, then take a gander at this stuff from the Council of Foreign Relations’ Center for Geoeconomic Studies. They’ve issued a nifty-keen treatise entitled…(drumroll)
How does the current economic and financial downturn match up to past contractions? As before, this chart book provides a series of answers, plotting current indicators (in red) against the average of all post–World War II recessions (blue). To facilitate comparison, the data are centered on the beginning of the recession (marked by “0”). The dotted lines represent the most severe and the mildest experiences in past cycles. Because the current downturn is frequently compared to the Great Depression, the appendix plots the current recession against the 1930s.
Three things to look for in this update:
• Some economic indicators suggest a rapid return to economic growth. Manufacturing sentiment has breached 50, indicating an expansion, and is now nearly at its post-war recession average.
• The fiscal deterioration is unprecedented, but the stimulus that is in part driving the budget deficit has had some positive impact. The “Cash for Clunkers” program raised auto sales relative to the start of the recession to a normal level from well below its post-war minimum. This has helped clear auto inventories.
• Although financial market spreads have come down from unprecedented levels, they remain well above the average during recessions. And even though the rate of job losses has decreased, unemployment is still increasing. Even in the worst previous post-war recession, unemployment was improving by this point in the cycle. Difficult credit conditions and a challenging labor market could impede a sustainable recovery.
The charts are fascinating…here’s the first one (sorry it’s so small):
• The year-over-year fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) is the worst in the postwar period.
(Recessions start at “0” and baseline numbers indicate the number of months out from the start…in these charts, “12, 16, 10, 24” represents 2009.)
There are loads more fascinating charts which tell the tale and belie any talk of “positives”…
It’s worth a visit to the CFR site, because it has lots of data floating around that’s interesting and discussion of current foreign affairs and global economics. It’s like going into the belly of the beast, but it’s not all kissing up to our current leader, either. So, pick your way around and you can find some interesting nuggets.
I have to wonder if, while these think-tankers are churning out their reports, they’re sending out for pizza as often as they have in the past…
***
PS: Check out the section of the blogroll titled Economic News/Analysis/Contrarian Blogs on the right which lists various economic blogs and resources if you want an ongoing dose of reality…
Yesterday, it really looked like we had a “Fighting Dem” as Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-NY went after the SEC over its failure to uncover the Madoff Ponzi scheme, didn’t it? Ackerman is known for having a gift for making acerbic comments…but how much fight is really there?
First a bit of history on Ackerman. He was a supporter of Hillary Clinton during the primaries last year, endorsing her in late January 2008. On June 5, just a couple of days before Clinton suspended her campaign early on June 7, he endorsed Obama. (There were others who waited another day, by the way. Full list of who did what, when here.)
He showed real signs of life during the Caroline Kennedy/NY Senate saga. He was the first to question her qualifications with comments like these:
Rep. Gary Ackerman of Queens, a 25-year veteran of Congress, declared in a radio interview: “I don’t know what Caroline Kennedy‘s qualifications are.”
“Except that she has name recognition, but so does J.Lo,” Ackerman continued on Steve Malzberg’s radio show on WOR. “I wouldn’t make J.Lo the senator unless she proved she had great qualifications, but we haven’t seen them yet.”
He took the obligatory hit at Sarah Palin on Face the Nation as things moved forward (December 22, 2008):
WASHINGTON – A Democratic congressman compared Caroline Kennedy to Sarah Palin, saying the would-be senator hasn’t proved she has the “guts and the gumption” to succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton. Rep. Gary Ackerman of Roslyn Heights said on CBS‘ “Face the Nation” yesterday that the Kennedy legend and connections won’t be enough to make her a successful senator if Gov. David A. Paterson appoints her to the U.S. Senate.
So, the fireworks yesterday at the Madoff hearing seem to be pretty typical of Ackerman’s style. (The video at his website is a shorter version of this clip, without the reference to “dung”):
One thing to be aware of is the fact that a lot of the money that has disappeared once belonged to a lot of folks from Ackerman’s district, so Ackerman’s umbrage will certainly play well at home!
Published: Monday, January 05, 2009
Updated: Monday, January 5, 2009 6:28 PM EST
WASHINGTON — Republican and Democratic House members said Monday that the alleged $50 billion fraud involving Wall Street figure Bernard Madoff reflects deep, systemic problems at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
SNIP
The SIPC shortfall will only worsen the distrust of investors, already deepened by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, said Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-N.Y. His district encompasses the affluent north shore of Long Island, home to many of Madoff’s alleged victims
(Note the reference to the Great Depression, the party line these days as part of the “fear stimulus” being used to pass the pork-laden “stimulus” package.)
But beneath the brash, confrontational style that plays well on TV, we see a typical Democrat who’s sticking with the crowd:
Even Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-N.Y., who was the first to raise the issue of corporate jets at the earlier hearing, seemed more open to helping the auto industry in his opening comment this go round.
“One does not always have a second chance to make a first impression. Welcome back,” Ackerman said. “The last time you didn’t get it. By coming up with this plan, maybe you do.”
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, September 11, 2007; 10:34 AM
Credit agencies, which graded billions of dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities as safe investments throughout the recent housing boom, are also feeling the heat.
Members of Congress are calling for hearings and oversight, saying the rating agencies are conflicted because they are paid by investment banks that issue the securities the agencies rate. Institutional investors accuse the rating firms of being slow to downgrade securities.
“Essentially, the originators and credit raters shoved enough pigs and laying hens in with the beef herd that investors expecting prime ribs on their silver platter and money in their pocket ended up with pork ribs on their paper plate and egg on their face,” Rep. Gary L. Ackerman (D-N.Y.) said in an opening statement during a Financial Services Committee hearing last week.
Nice, but what was 13 term Congressman Ackerman doing when there were calls for “oversight” when Democrats took charge of Congress a couple of years ago? I don’t see any mention of a crusade for oversight in Ackerman’s bio and list of accomplishments at his website.I don’t have the time or inclination at this point to see how he voted when the whole business of pushing bad loans was originally put together way back when, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ackerman went along with it all then…(See his new legislation introduced January 27, below.)
And he’s right in line with all the rest on other aspects of current economic issues (Also, seee voting pattern, below):
“We, the taxpayers, will get back our investment,” said Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights). “Any shortfall where we don’t get our money back is going to be paid for by Wall Street.”
Following his interview with the Great Neck Record, Congressman Ackerman was to head to Washington to vote on the “bailout.” With the financial crisis at the forefront, he was quick to note: “We have to correct the errors of the past.” He emphasized that the country must “restore confidence and put liquidity in the market” so that “people can pay for education, pay bills, pay mortgages, run businesses …”
With his background on financial service committees, the congressman emphasized that the country “must come up with solutions even before a crisis.”
Congressman Ackerman told how he had put in financial legislation even before this current financial crisis came to a head. His bill calls for credit agencies to be required to put like loans in a package, and prohibiting them from “rating what is not ratable.” And he emphasized that “We must hold credit agencies responsible for what they do.”
Congressman Ackerman termed this “common sense regulation.”
Blah, blah, blah…”correct the errors of the past”…Not without oversight, I’m afraid.
And in the run-up to the now “Bad Bank” which is in the works, we saw how Ackerman was already on board:
Other committee members grilled Paulson on his failure to use money in the $700 billion bailout package to reduce mortgage foreclosures. Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the committee, put in the hearing record a letter from Rep. Dennis Kucinich in which the Cleveland Democrat urged Congress to withhold more TARP money from the Treasury Department because of its failure to act on foreclosures.
New York Democratic Rep. Gary Ackerman called the Treasury Department’s decision to avoid buying troubled mortgages from banks, as it originally promised, “the second-largest bait-and-switch scheme that history has ever seen, second only to the reasons given us to vote for the invasion of Iraq.”
Paulson said that the money had to be used to prevent a collapse in the financial system and that the Treasury Department is still looking for ways to reduce foreclosures.
Rep. Ackerman can display all the “righteous anger” that he wants for the TV cameras and the folks back home, but I have to ask–isn’t he really just part of “diversion” along with all the huffing and puffing about capping executive salaries? The Madoff issue is important, of course, but Ackerman’s brash style seems to be only style when it comes to many economic issues and, like others, late to the party with his protests.
Eleven Democrats in the House voted against the stimulus bill…you won’t find Ackerman’s name among them.
According to GovTrack.us, Ackerman is a “rank and file” Democrat; OpenCongress cites a 98% record of voting with party (Votes most often with Ellen Tauscher, D-CA)
Rep. Ackerman introduced this bill on January 27, 2009 Source: GovTrack.us
H. R. 710
To secure additional Tier I capital for the United States banking system from parties other than the Federal Government by providing authority to the Secretary of the Treasury to guaranty certain new preferred stock investments made by public pensions acting in a collective fashion, and for other purposes.
If you have a public pension, watch this bill:
(2) INSTITUTION ELIGIBLE FOR INVESTMENTS- Only an investment in preferred stock that meets the requirements of subsection (e) and has been issued by a financial institution which meets the definition of a qualifying financial institution under the TARP Capital Purchase Program established under the authority of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 may be treated as an eligible investment for purposes of this Act.
On Tuesday night (January 27) as I passed by the TV, I saw Greta Van Susteren introducing a segment near the end of the show called ” The Best of the Rest.”
There they were, former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton laughing it up on Monday in New Orleans at the National Association of Auto Dealers conference. Greta has spent quite a lot of time featuring this duo; you can check out several videos at the “On the Record” site. However, the video I saw has not shown up on the site…buried, I guess.
First, here’s the only report that I can find on the event:
Bush, Clinton offer morale boost for auto dealers at New Orleans conference
by Jen DeGregorio, The Times-Picayune
Tuesday January 27, 2009, 7:18 AM
Eliot Kamenitz / The Times-PicayuneFormer Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton embrace during their address at the National Association of Auto Dealers conference in New Orleans on Monday.
Former presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, who were in New Orleans on Monday to speak to members of the National Automobile Dealers Association, tried to assure one of the nation’s most troubled industries that it would survive an economic maelstrom that has swallowed more than 2.5 million jobs in the past year.
But survival will not come without sacrifice, they said. Clinton and Bush evoked the image of Hurricane Katrina to describe the level of perseverance they said will be needed to carry the nation through a recession that has been widely compared with the Great Depression. Citizens must pitch in to help one another as they did after Katrina, when countless volunteers descended upon New Orleans to help rebuild and donated millions of dollars to a relief fund headed by Clinton and Bush, the former presidents said.
SNIP
While Bush and Clinton focused on the economy, they also made time for some banter and shared personal anecdotes about their time in the Oval Office.
Clinton and Bush sat down for a casual chat with outgoing association Chairwoman Annette Sykora, who quizzed them about their victories and regrets in office.
SNIP
Both men sang the praises of President Barack Obama, saying his administration already has set the right tone to weather the economic crisis by encouraging an era of responsibility.
“We are bound together, and divorce is not an option, ” Clinton said.
There’s something missing in this report…the bit that Greta showed.
Greta prefaced the video with a big grin and much enjoyment over what Bush said and added that Clinton had a great quip after that.
I didn’t even hear the Clinton quip because I as so ticked off at what George H. W. Bush decided to deliver to the audience. I was fuming from Bush’s rendition of how he was confronted by women protesters over reproductive issues.
According to Bush, he was irritated when he was in his limo and some women got right up to it waving a sign saying “Stay Out of Our Wombs.” He mused about he couldn’t understand how they even got that close…then wisecracked (sic) “Believe me, that’s one place I wouldn’t want to go”…
Well, the audience ERUPTED in UPROARIOUS LAUGHTER from the audience! I’m assuming the majority of the audience was men. Clinton was laughing, too, and delivered his line. The camera didn’t catch the reaction of Chairwoman Sykora, who was off camera in the video.
As I mentioned, I have no idea what Clinton said, but Greta thought it was very funny and, in fact, thought the whole segment was a laugh riot. Which makes me wonder about Greta. We’ve got a former President mocking women about their intense feelings about controlling their own bodies and she thinks that’s funny?
I guess I should be grateful that she showed it since the newspaper report from The Times-Picayune chose not to report on it. WHY didn’t they?
As for Clinton…I wish I knew what he said. Then again, maybe I don’t want to go there…
Frankly, writing this at the end of a day when I learned that Barack Obama dumped money for birth control from his bilious “stimulus package” to please Republicans, that video makes me even angrier than when I saw the clip on Tuesday night. It seems like a gratuitous slap in the face considering that the bill was going to pass anyway.
But “3-Card Monte” Obama seems set into his groove. One minute he gives the OK for family planning groups working overseas to talk to women about abortion, the next he’s robbing access to low-cost birth control to women in need here in the U.S. What does he really think of his own wife and daughters? Apparently he’s willing to sell women cheap when it comes to “bringing us together.”
This guy seems to like playing with women, keeping them on a string, giving them a little bit, then taking it away. He’s shuffling around issues as we expected because he has no consistent core values. Keeping an eye on all his moves will be difficult. All I’m sure of is that women will ultimately lose the game with this guy. The misogyny exhibited in the campaign in the form of demeaning gestures, the behavior of Jon Favreau with a cardboard cutout of Hillary Clinton, and the apparent comfort with the likes of Ludacris’ video support is now in firmly in place at the top of our government.
What a inspirational role model for all of us…NOT!
By the way, apparently Medicare drug plans stopped covering “sexual performance” drugs Viagra, Cialis and Levitra back in 2007 except for treating certain medical conditions like pulmonary hypertension (saving a CBO projected $2 billion between 2006 and 2015) . Let’s see if the Obama crowd reinstates coverage and gives women ANOTHER insulting slap. Nothing would surprise me at this point…
UPDATE 1
Many thanks to Harold who found a video of the exchange…from his comments!! I will try to embed the video when I get back later…
Clinton laughed and said something along the lines of “I cannot afford to make a joke like that. You know what people would say if *I* made a joke like that” and he continued a while like that, then made a pretty stupid joke himself which I forgot.
Voters who are not included in Democratic party email sends may find the above MEDIA RELEASE of interest, as a follow up to W.A.M.’s attempt to call attention to the “house party” recruitment drives held during December by the Obama camp. (See below for link to the December post.)
Progress Ohio’s MEDIA ADVISORY (shown below here) reveals ties to ACORN, MoveOn and other groups in a coordinated effort to promulgate public pressure on Congress to rush through Obama’s bail-out spree (aka Recovery Plan).
Media Advisory
Campaign for Jobs and Economic Recovery Now
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: Brian Rothenberg
‘Jobs and Economic Recovery Now!’ Campaign Calls on Congress to Support the Obama Jobs and Economic Recovery Plan
Columbus, OH – Amid a worsening economic crisis that has left nearly 2 million Americans without jobs and over 2.5 million more without homes this year, ACORN, Progress Ohio, MoveOn and other community groups will participate in a press conference on January 6th at 12 noon urging Ohio’s Congressional Delegation to stand up for struggling out-of-work Ohio families by supporting the jobs and economic recovery package being proposed by President-Elect Barack Obama and Congressional Leaders.
One week before the new 111th Congress is sworn into office, the Campaign for Jobs and Economic Recovery will discuss why Congress’ very first act should be passing the Obama jobs and economic recovery plan which will create millions of jobs through smart public investments that will also ensure a stronger American economy down the road.
Addressing the worst economic crisis the nation has seen since the Great Depression, President-Elect Obama, during his December 6th radio address, outlined a plan that will create or save at least three million jobs in 2 years by making sound long-term investments in energy conservation, renewable energy technologies, schools, healthcare and transportation, including the single largest investment in U.S. national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s.
The plan includes careful, targeted spending with strong “use it or lose it” accountability measures. Following 8 years of misguided economic policies that gave priority to tax breaks for multimillionaires and big corporations, the Obama plan will get America’s disappearing middle-class working again.
WHO: ACORN, Progress Ohio, MoveOn and other Community OrganizationsWHEN: Tuesday, January 6th, 12:00 noon
WHAT: Press Conference Call Urging Ohio’s Congressional Delegation to Support President-Elect Obama’s Economic Recovery Plan
WHERE: Ohio State House, High Street sidewalk in front of the McKinley monument, Columbus, OH, 43215
A W.A.M. spokesperson reports that she saw a report broadcast on FOX yesterday which showed Nancy Pelosi before Congress yesterday saying:
“Some 80% of the American people” support Obama’s Recovery Plan. “They may not know what the specific details are, but they like the brand!”
It’s now quite clear what December’s hype was about and what they are aiming for. The rest of her remarks addressed pushing Congress to rush this through – because of this (phony) public mandate.
This is one huge marketing blitz that will drown out any discourse or dissent unless people start spreading this counter argument around! This is bigger than trying to sell the Brooklyn Bridge!!
Some things to consider about this effort:
*It follows, with precise timing, on the heels of Obama’s multi-pronged pre-holiday push for a show of ground level support, the New Year reveals just where this strategy is aimed.
*While not yet in office and publicly claiming there can only be “one President at a time” the ACORN and MOVE ON arms of the Obama octopus are clearly prepping to swiftly move through Congress yet another bundle of fiat cash meant to engender public good will.
*It’s amazing what this crew can aim to do with ‘play money’ – even a Monopoly game has more rules than this!
Some important questions swept under the above rug:
*Where will all this money come from? Who will be burdened with these costs?
*What exactly are these “smart jobs”?
*Other than Michelle Obama’s close ties to the industry (and the related union’s support of her husband’s candidacy) what exactly do “health care workers have to do with the “national infrastructure?”
*The biggest questions of all: Using Pelosi to lay the ground for this sweeping, costly “Recovery Plan” before Obama even takes office and using mass propaganda to tout its merits tells no one exactly what the contents are nor what the real consequences of this “Change” will be.
*We can only wonder, when they sign on for this package, will any in Congress either have – or be given – the time to do due diligence on this vast measure’s ‘fine print’? And will its specifics ever be revealed to the public who will foot the bill?
*Finally, what then, if these play money spending sprees don’t quite do the trick?***
InsightAnalytical -- Watching Our World 
Harold, on January 29th, 2009 at 9:02 AM Said: Edit Comment