The Past Week: July 12-18, 2009 (Energy-Saving Porch Project; “Full Plates Full Lives” Food Campaign; JFK, Jr.)

~~By InsightAnalytical-GRL

We’ve been busy for the last week or so having our back porch enclosed. It’s costing some bucks, but we figure we get an extra room out of it and eliminate the dust and dealing with the wind, which has made the area virtually unusable, except to pile up a lot of junk!  It’s unheated, but we bought E-366 doors and windows and have insulted the walls with above spec insulation. Here in southern New Mexico this means that we will have a delightful place to hang out during the winter and also in the cool mornings and evenings during most of the warmer months. Even all closed up now the temperatures are no more than what’s going on outside, which means our choice of the E-366 glass and the insulation is really paying off already!  Our AC isn’t working any harder, so we’re very pleased!

Here’s what the room looks like before caulking and final finishing. By next week I’ll be able to show you the entire room painted and in all its glory!

Porch Enclosure in Progress...

Unfortunately, the dogs aren’t getting out into the backyard very much because of all the mayhem.  But Slick, in particular is enjoying the gated area at the front of the house:

Slilck hangs out...

As we prepare to write a large check for this project (which is being done by neighbor who teaches but has a contractor’s license, too), it seems we’ve been musing a lot about money and the economy this past week. Here’s something in particular that is something to consider supporting:

Full Plates Full Lives

U.S. Foodservice, a 150 year old company that supplies food and related products to “restaurants, hospitals, hotels, schools and governmental operations” is running a “STEMulous Drive” now through October 15, 2009.  They’re organizing neighborhood drives, selling a cookbook, etc. all with the aim of feeding families who need help during these tough economic times. “Operation STEMulous” is specifically aimed at getting fresh fruits and vegetables to needy families.

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Speaking of vegetables…this porch project has really cut into my gardening time…I’m barely able to water everyday, but as of last night the patio outside the new room is finally cleared of lumber!

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And finally, this:

Jul 16, 2009 10:25 am US/Eastern

10th Anniversary Of JFK Jr.’s Death Passes Quietly

NEW YORK (CBS) ― The tenth anniversary of the death of John F. Kennedy, Jr., in a small plane crash off Martha’s Vineyard passed with relatively little notice Thursday, overshadowed by attention paid to the 40th anniversary of the historic Apollo 11 moon mission.

I remember that night clearly…It was a sultry evening in New Jersey and after hearing the initial reports I stood outside on our back patio and gazed up at the sky for a long time and prayed it wasn’t true…but it was.

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THE PAST WEEK

CNBC (Among Others) Caught in the Act “Reporting” Nouriel Roubini’s Comments on the Economy…He Responds

HEADS UP! It’s HERE! The New World Currency Design, Presented to the G-8 Delegations (With Pics)

The Past Week: July 4-11, 2009 (Where We Are Now re: The Economy-Robert Reich, Nouriel Roubini, Robert Shiller, Chris Martenson)

CNBC (Among Others) Caught in the Act “Reporting” Nouriel Roubini’s Comments on the Economy…He Responds

~~By InsightAnalytical-GRL

Yesterday morning (Thursday, July 16), I tuned into CNBC with my usual jaded eyes and ears and was amply rewarded by the total misrepresentation of Nouriel Roubini’s comments on the economy.

The talking heads were almost giddy as the “news” flashed across the bottom of the screen almost non-stop:

“Roubini says the worst is if over for the financial (sector) and the economy.”(sic)

The  talking heads opined that the gains in the market were because of this comment.

Something didn’t sound right, not right at all. I had just seen a video of a Bloomberg panel featuring Roubin and Robert Shiller (who forecasts the housing market, among other things).  The panel discussion was on July 9. Here’s the story with the video which is up at Roubini’s RGE Monitor site,under the title “Roubini Says U.S. Recession Will Last Six More Months.”  Roubini also said that whatever recovery occurs will be “shallow.”  And, he added more grim analysis of the economy and our present state of affairs as the discussion progressed.

So, now it seems that Roubini has issued a statement to counter the reporting of his views:

Roubini: Views on Economy Unchanged Despite Reports

Published: Thursday, 16 Jul 2009 | 5:51 PM ET

By: CNBC.com

Nouriel Roubini, the economist whose dire forecasts earned him the nickname “Doctor Doom,” said after markets closed Thursday that earlier reports claiming he sees an end to the recession this year were “taken out of context.”

cnbc.com

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“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over ‘this year’ and that I have ‘improved’ my economic outlook,” Roubini said in a prepared statement. “Despite those reports … my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.”

Several business news outlets, picking up on a report initially from Reuters, earlier Thursday cited Roubini as saying that the worst of the economic financial crisis may be over.

(MORE)

Yeah, “several business news outlets” means YOU, CNBC!

Roubini’s unfiltered statement is up now at his site.

Roubini Statement on the U.S. Economic Outlook

Nouriel Roubini | Jul 16, 2009

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over ‘this year’ and that I have ‘improved’ my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010.  Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19^th month of a severe recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

And then he gets to the real core issue:

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak. I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such a large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy. But as I have consistently argued, the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double-dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

That sounds a whole lot less open and shut than the message being broadcast by CNBC, doesn’t it?

The Past Week: July 4-11, 2009 (Where We Are Now re: The Economy-Robert Reich, Nouriel Roubini, Robert Shiller, Chris Martenson)

~~By InsightAnalytical-GRL

Well, we’ve managed to actually post enough this week to have a formal “Past Week” column!

Money has been on my mind as I unwound a few positions in the stock market this week as things are stalling before what might be a plunge.  This is quite a relief…my stress level dropped immediately! These were mostly mutual funds we bought 10+ years ago, so we still came out ahead in spite of the huge drop in March.

However, we have to be vigilant about the future. Preservation of what we all have, hedging against inflation and a collapsing dollar…you know the drill!

So here are a couple of things on the subject of the economy that I came across this week. The first is by Robert Reich; next is a video from Bloomberg.com.

If you’re wondering what Robert Reich is thinking lately, check out his personal blog.  (Reich is a staunch supporter of  a public healthcare option and  urges supporters to get active to get  Obama  to “do the right things” in a recent post titled “What Can I Do?“).

Here’s his latest post about the state of the economy:

When Will The Recovery Begin? Never.

The so-called “green shoots” of recovery are turning brown in the scorching summer sun. In fact, the whole debate about when and how a recovery will begin is wrongly framed. On one side are the V-shapers who look back at prior recessions and conclude that the faster an economy drops, the faster it gets back on track. And because this economy fell off a cliff late last fall, they expect it to roar to life early next year. Hence the V shape.

snip

The reason is asset values at bottom are so low that investor confidence returns only gradually.
That’s where the more sober U-shapers come in. They predict a more gradual recovery, as investors slowly tiptoe back into the market.

But Reich doesn’t belong to either camp:

In a recession this deep, recovery doesn’t depend on investors. It depends on consumers who, after all, are 70 percent of the U.S. economy. And this time consumers got really whacked. Until consumers start spending again, you can forget any recovery, V or U shaped.

Reich forsees a “new economy”:

My prediction, then? Not a V, not a U. But an X. This economy can’t get back on track because the track we were on for years — featuring flat or declining median wages, mounting consumer debt, and widening insecurity, not to mention increasing carbon in the atmosphere — simply cannot be sustained.

The X marks a brand new track — a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can’t “recover” because it can’t go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.

Then there is this video from Bloomberg on the subject of “Where We are Now,” which features Robert Shiller (his website here), the economist’/housing forecaster from Yale and New York University’s Nouriel Roubini.

At Roubini’s site, RGE Monitor, there is also a link to the video and a breakdown of key sections with their time.  The discussion is titled:

Roubini on a Bloomberg Panel: Recession will Last Another Six Months and the Recovery will be Shallow

The key points I jotted down from Roubini  are that in the short term (1.5 years) there will be deflation and by the end of 2010 we’ll be seeing inflation. Frankly, I thought the discussion was more pessimistic than the title suggests!

Of course, over at ChrisMartenson.com, there is continuing analysis of all this plus a longer term view of the direction we’re going in presented in The Crash Course and what we can do about it.

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THE PAST WEEK

*By Kenosha Marge

Saturday, July 11, 2009: One Year Anniversary of “Peak Oil Day” Makes it a MUST to Watch “The Crash Course”

*NOW, NOW…THERE, THERE…LITTLE VOTER

200,000 Hits!…Some of the Stories that Made it Happen: Obama’s Handwriting; Nation of Nincompoops, Obama’s Associates; Sharia Finance; The Fed; Reality Check from Chicago

July 4, 2009: Tea Party in New Mexico Shares Day with Muddy “Rainbow Gathering”

About Sarah Palin…