Missouri and McCain…

Ok, in spite of my skepticism about the state of public opinion polling these days (see my prior post “Musings on Pollsters: Confessions of a Former Gallup Study Director…), I just had to post this.

It’s a list of Missouri polls since December 2007, and all, except for one, show McCain has been leading in Missouri. And now, after a dip through May and early June, McCain appears to be rebounding.

The data was first posted at RealClearPolitics.com .

Missouri: McCain vs. Obama

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
SurveyUSA 06/20 – 06/22 543 LV 50 43 McCain +7.0
Rasmussen 06/03 – 06/03 500 LV 42 43 Obama +1.0
SurveyUSA 05/16 – 05/18 1523 LV 48 45 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen 05/06 – 05/06 500 LV 47 41 McCain +6.0
SurveyUSA 04/11 – 04/13 542 RV 50 42 McCain +8.0
Rasmussen 03/24 – 03/24 500 LV 53 38 McCain +15.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 – 03/16 536 RV 53 39 McCain +14.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 – 02/28 632 RV 48 42 McCain +6.0
Rasmussen 02/11 – 02/11 500 LV 42 40 McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA 01/11 – 01/13 562 RV 51 40 McCain +11.0
SurveyUSA 12/13 – 12/15 547 RV 44 47 Obama +3.0

If you click on the latest poll by Survey USA from 6/20-6/22, you’ll see a series of polls about possible vice-presidential candidates. The only pair-ups which fall within the margin of error of 4.3% is the contest between a McCain-Carly Fiorini ticket at 46% vs. an Obama-Claire McCaskill ticket at 42% (poll #11). The undecideds are at 12%.

McCaskill, of course, is the Senator from Missouri. Wouldn’t you think a “favorite daughter” would bring more to the ticket? I’ve read that she is worried about her own re-election, which would explain this showing. But who does better?…none of the others proposed vps…Kaine, Strickland, Webb, no matter whom McCain is paired with. McCaskill is the only one who narrows the gap at this stage…even so, the results for Obama-McCaskill are really just about statistically even with McCain-Fiorini. And Fiorini hasn’t even been in politics and may not have the name recognition of McCaskill.

Who is Fiorini? Former head of Hewlett Packard and now RNC Victory Chairman and
an “economic advisor” to McCain. And rumored to actually be in the running to be McCain’s VP.

Oh, dear. Missouri is important. In the electoral college count. This shift in Missouri may to put McCain ahead in the electoral math…

Now what does Obama do?? Who else/what issue can go under his magic bus, which may be heading for the junkyard soon, I hope…

We shall see…

UPDATE/ADDITION

Note on Rasmussen and Survey USA–Rasmussen is generally considered to be a Republican survey, since it usually weights its samples in favor of Republican respondents.

SurveyUSA has seemed to be more consistent and accurate in its polling in the past…

But note that the most recent SurveyUSA sample is 543 “likely voters.” (How they define “likely voters” is another consideration)…

Smaller samples usually yield larger margins of error (at Gallup we used to consider a sample below 1000 or 1500 as the range where a sample was considered to be small). Beware of data from breakdowns of the total sample if it is fairly small since the number of respondents in the individual sub-samples will be very small at that point. For example, a total study size of 546 is small; results based on a breakdown into numbers from 6 or 7 income levels, lets say, would then be very small samples and the data quoted would be unreliable.)

As a result of the small sample in the latest SurveyUSA poll, for example, we have a fairly large Margin of error at +/- 4.3%. However, even with the large MOE, McCain still has a significant lead over Obama overall and in all the pair-ups except for the one pair-up I’ve noted which includes McCaskill as VP.

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8 Responses

  1. It appears that it’s all down to Alaska Gov Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney, and team Romney fears Palin now has the best shot, so Romney camp is mounting a blogosphere-wide assault via Politico.

    The tip-off that Politico is just a “promote Romney” piece is that it mentions EVERY NAME in the next two tiers of Veep prospects EXCEPT SARAH PALIN!!! — even names far more unlikely than Palin (since Romney camp knows Palin is the ONLY ONE who tops — I’ll say tops by far — Romney as McCain’s best pick).

    Bottom line, Romney and Politico fear Palin most — as do the Dems and the MSM. (By the way, the Dems and MSM do not fear Romney the most — which says a lot.)

    AOL, a main on-line pro-Obama/pro-Dem player, is now carrying the Politico piece promoting Romney buzz.

    Clearly AOL wants McCain and the GOP to lose the general elction — hence they gladly promote Romney (no mention of Palin).

    Also, CNN had Romney — kind of out of the blue — attacking Obama. Again, CNN, wanting McCain and the GOP to lose, gladly promotes Romney (to attempt to avert the Palin threat).

    All the media frenzy which will surround the remarkable Palin “story” — essentially free to McCain — will be worth millions and millions of dollars of coverage and PR (more money than Romney would provide anyway).

  2. I think either Fiorini or Palin would be great running mates for McCain. While I definitely do have differences with them on many issues I also have differences with Obama on many issues.

    I’ve seen several Fiorini youtube bits and she’s smart, articulate and comes across as reasonable. Not some wild-eyed War-mongering nutjob.

    I think the media and the DNC fear Fiorini or Palin because they know that a whole lot of pysted-off feminists will find it easier to vote for McCain as a protest against their former party if he has a woman as running mate.

    I quite honestly believe that if the Republicans do chose Palin or Fiorini and McCain wins, there will be a number of women voters that the Democrats will never win back. The anger at the misogny runs too deep.

    Too many of us now believe that the Big Tent that the Democrats talk about is for men and the women should be outside the tent preparing meals.

  3. Thanks, Ted, for that info!! My brother and family is visiting from NJ, so I”m not in the loop as much as I want to be!!

  4. I think Fiorini is a good choice for him, but it saddens me that she would beat Hillary to the punch.

  5. Ted, that’s very interesting information, but I’ve yet to see any polls that include Palin. Can you point us to some? I agree that she would be a formidable choice for McCain – but the downside is that few people outside the blogosphere or Alaska have heard of her. She would need extensive introduction. But once people know something about her, she would be a big asset, particularly with disenfranchised dems. I wonder, though, about the republican base. They seem to be the ones who wanted Romney. This is really the rock and a hard place for McCain. Does he try to attract the 18 million angry Clinton voters? Or does he work to solidify the republican base? Whichever he choses will mean a different VP pick.

  6. SUSA has been my favorite polling place during this election. They seem to be closer to the actual vote than any other polling place.

    Thanks for the post…I have been ignoring polls for the last month…I will watch them closer com Sept.

  7. Gloria,

    Please open comments to Matthew 25. Is there someway for the “tick-in-the-box” to be set as the default?

  8. Ea, I do tick the box but sometimes the system autosaves and does other things and for some reason I get a version where the tick is off. I think it’s on, until you tell me!! THANKS! There is no default, so it is something I have to do manually…

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