Ok, in spite of my skepticism about the state of public opinion polling these days (see my prior post “Musings on Pollsters: Confessions of a Former Gallup Study Director…), I just had to post this.
It’s a list of Missouri polls since December 2007, and all, except for one, show McCain has been leading in Missouri. And now, after a dip through May and early June, McCain appears to be rebounding.
The data was first posted at RealClearPolitics.com .
Missouri: McCain vs. Obama
|Poll||Date||Sample||McCain (R)||Obama (D)||Spread|
|SurveyUSA||06/20 – 06/22||543 LV||50||43||McCain +7.0|
|Rasmussen||06/03 – 06/03||500 LV||42||43||Obama +1.0|
|SurveyUSA||05/16 – 05/18||1523 LV||48||45||McCain +3.0|
|Rasmussen||05/06 – 05/06||500 LV||47||41||McCain +6.0|
|SurveyUSA||04/11 – 04/13||542 RV||50||42||McCain +8.0|
|Rasmussen||03/24 – 03/24||500 LV||53||38||McCain +15.0|
|SurveyUSA||03/14 – 03/16||536 RV||53||39||McCain +14.0|
|SurveyUSA||02/26 – 02/28||632 RV||48||42||McCain +6.0|
|Rasmussen||02/11 – 02/11||500 LV||42||40||McCain +2.0|
|SurveyUSA||01/11 – 01/13||562 RV||51||40||McCain +11.0|
|SurveyUSA||12/13 – 12/15||547 RV||44||47||Obama +3.0|
If you click on the latest poll by Survey USA from 6/20-6/22, you’ll see a series of polls about possible vice-presidential candidates. The only pair-ups which fall within the margin of error of 4.3% is the contest between a McCain-Carly Fiorini ticket at 46% vs. an Obama-Claire McCaskill ticket at 42% (poll #11). The undecideds are at 12%.
McCaskill, of course, is the Senator from Missouri. Wouldn’t you think a “favorite daughter” would bring more to the ticket? I’ve read that she is worried about her own re-election, which would explain this showing. But who does better?…none of the others proposed vps…Kaine, Strickland, Webb, no matter whom McCain is paired with. McCaskill is the only one who narrows the gap at this stage…even so, the results for Obama-McCaskill are really just about statistically even with McCain-Fiorini. And Fiorini hasn’t even been in politics and may not have the name recognition of McCaskill.
Who is Fiorini? Former head of Hewlett Packard and now RNC Victory Chairman and
an “economic advisor” to McCain. And rumored to actually be in the running to be McCain’s VP.
Oh, dear. Missouri is important. In the electoral college count. This shift in Missouri may to put McCain ahead in the electoral math…
Now what does Obama do?? Who else/what issue can go under his magic bus, which may be heading for the junkyard soon, I hope…
We shall see…
Note on Rasmussen and Survey USA–Rasmussen is generally considered to be a Republican survey, since it usually weights its samples in favor of Republican respondents.
SurveyUSA has seemed to be more consistent and accurate in its polling in the past…
But note that the most recent SurveyUSA sample is 543 “likely voters.” (How they define “likely voters” is another consideration)…
Smaller samples usually yield larger margins of error (at Gallup we used to consider a sample below 1000 or 1500 as the range where a sample was considered to be small). Beware of data from breakdowns of the total sample if it is fairly small since the number of respondents in the individual sub-samples will be very small at that point. For example, a total study size of 546 is small; results based on a breakdown into numbers from 6 or 7 income levels, lets say, would then be very small samples and the data quoted would be unreliable.)
As a result of the small sample in the latest SurveyUSA poll, for example, we have a fairly large Margin of error at +/- 4.3%. However, even with the large MOE, McCain still has a significant lead over Obama overall and in all the pair-ups except for the one pair-up I’ve noted which includes McCaskill as VP.